Alpha Dynamic Growth v2.95

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System Overview

ADG v2.95 is a multi-timeframe trend-following Expert Advisor for XAUUSD on the H1 execution chart. It combines 6-state regime detection, dynamic per-regime risk scaling, and an Adaptive Bear-Aware Cooldown system that switches into a defensive posture whenever the macro market turns bearish.

Regime Detection

6 states detected via ADX, ATR and EMA structure: Strong Trend, Mod Trend, Ranging, Volatile, Choppy, Unknown — each with its own risk scale.

Bear-Aware Circuit

When price drops below W1 EMA50 AND D1 EMA200, the EA blocks longs and switches to a defensive cooldown profile (10 days, 2 triggers max).

ATH Smart Reset

Drawdown is tracked from all-time-high equity. When the EA prints a new ATH, the trigger counter resets automatically.

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Equity Curves (Real Backtest Data)

Live equity progression extracted from MetaTrader 5 strategy tester reports. Both runs start from $10,000 with identical EA logic — only the time period differs.

2023–2026 Bull Run · $10,000 → $1,160,889

Bear 2022 · $10,000 → $16,173 (survival mode)

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Period-by-Period Results

Two separate backtests, each starting from $10,000, with no parameter changes between runs.

Period	Market	Net Profit	Max DD	Sharpe	PF	Trades	Win %
Bear 2022	BEAR	+$6,173	33.52%	1.90	1.16	333	68%
2023–2026	BULL	+$1,150,889	23.79%	6.05	1.92	678	69%
Combined	ALL	+$1,157,062	33.52%	—	—	1,011	68.5%

The Story Behind the Numbers

During the brutal 2022 bear market, where gold trended down for most of the year, the EA still ended positive at +$6,173 with a Sharpe of 1.90 — proving the system can survive and even profit in adverse conditions. Then, in the 2023–2026 bull cycle, the same EA with the same parameters produced +$1.15M on a $10,000 base, a Sharpe of 6.05, and a Recovery Factor of 3.70. The Adaptive Bear-Aware Cooldown is what makes this possible: defensive when markets are hostile, fully engaged when conditions favor trend-following.

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Regime Detection & Dynamic Risk Scaling

The EA continuously detects the current market regime and scales risk per trade accordingly.

Regime	Risk Scale	Effective Risk (base 4%)	Description
STRONG_TREND	100%	4.0%	Strong directional move — full risk
MOD_TREND	92%	3.7%	Moderate trend — slight reduction
RANGING	92%	3.7%	Mean-reverting range conditions
VOLATILE	70%	2.8%	High volatility — reduced size
CHOPPY	45%	1.8%	No clear direction — heavy reduction
UNKNOWN	0%	0%	No trades taken

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Adaptive Bear-Aware Cooldown

The defining feature of v2.95 — a circuit breaker that adapts its behavior based on the macro market state.

Bull / Normal Market

Macro filterPrice > W1 EMA50 & D1 EMA200

Cooldown base5 days

Max triggers5

Long tradesAllowed

Recovery50% risk × 10 days

Bear Market

Macro filterPrice < W1 EMA50 & D1 EMA200

Cooldown base10 days

Max triggers2

Long tradesBlocked

Recovery50% risk × 10 days

Why Bear-Aware?

In bear markets, drawdowns are typically deeper and longer. A single fixed cooldown profile risks re-entering too quickly and stacking losses. v2.95 doubles the cooldown duration to 10 days and limits triggers to just 2 before a permanent stop — this protects capital during the worst conditions. Once macro flips back to bull, the EA returns to its normal 5-day / 5-trigger profile and resumes full risk-on operation.

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User-Adjustable Parameters

The Pi Securities build exposes only the essential parameters. All entry logic, indicators, and circuit-breaker thresholds are locked inside the EA for safety.

Risk Parameters

InpRisk_Percent4.0%

InpMinEquity$500

InpMaxTrades3

InpMaxDailyLossPercent2.0%

InpMaxDrawdownPercent20.0%

Session & System

InpSessionStartHour8

InpSessionEndHour23

InpMagicNumber123456

InpDebugModefalse

InpLogTradestrue